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![]() ![]() Some people suggest that you should observe a bunch of facts and only then, come up with a theory that tries to explain it all. That’s the wrong approach because even though you have good intuitions, it’s easy to come up with a wrong theory that has little chance of being proven wrong. Instead, what you should do is theorize early and often. ![]() Observe a few empirical facts, then come up with a theory to explain it. Observe more empirical facts and you’ll see immediate tension with your ideas. I believe this will make it betterĪt the end of the day, it’s not the number of right predictions that will uphold your theory. It’s what happens when you put it up against novel situations. If you get 99 predictions right, and then number 100 is a completely novel thing that contradicts what you believe, it means that you had good intuitions regarding your experiences, but your theory doesn’t work well outside of that range. Having a good theory is more useful to humanity than your intuitions. Taking a personal break from COVID-fever, and made myself write up a thought experiment I’ve bounced around in my head. ![]()
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